Nova Scotia Election 2024: Ridings to Watch

Nova Scotians head to the polls on November 26 after Tim Houston called an election about eight months before the fixed election date. Let’s take a deeper dive into five must-watch ridings that could significantly impact the province's political landscape.

Northside - Westmount

For those who like political drama, Northside-Westmount is full of it. To start, we have to go back to the summer of 2019 when a by-election was called due to Eddie Orrell’s resignation in order to run federally for the Conservatives. The PCs nominated longtime Tory Danny Laffin, only to abruptly drop him from their ticket just hours before the deadline. Laffin blasted then-leader-now-premier Tim Houston and remained on the ballot, though replacement candidate Murray Ryan went on to win the by-election.

Ryan only served for two years before he was defeated in the 2021 general election by Liberal candidate Fred Tilley. Tilley, former principal of NSCC’s Marconi Campus, became one of the official opposition Liberal’s most vocal critics of government and was given the responsibility of caucus chair for the Grits, making it even more shocking when just days before the writ was dropped, Tilley crossed the floor and joined the governing PCs.

Now carrying the PC flag, Tilley will face off against - you guessed it - Danny Laffin, who is running this time for the Liberals. 

How will voters in Northside - Westmount respond to this partisan whiplash?

Kings South

A party heading into an election with the majority of seats is usually most concerned with holding their current ridings, while looking at a few others for possible pickups. For the governing PCs, Kings South makes sense as an upheld riding to target.

Liberal Keith Irving won the seat in 2013, defeating NDP cabinet minister Ramona Jennex, and defended it successfully in the 2017 and 2021 general elections before deciding not to re-offer this year. In his place, the Liberals having nominated political staffer Mike Hamm. Like his predecessor, Hamm’s first campaign will have him face Jennex, who will once again represent the NDP.

The PCs have finished second in the riding the last two general elections and considering that this is a red riding surrounded by blue, it makes sense for them to target it.

Sackville-Cobequid

For the NDP to contend to form government they need to make gains in seat-rich HRM, and Sackville - Cobequid may present their best chance at gaining. Once an NDP stronghold going back to the mid-1980s, the riding went to the PCs in 2019 when former councillor Steve Craig took the seat in a by-election. Craig, who successfully defended his seat in 2021, is not re-offering this time around, presenting an opportunity for the NDP to continue rebuilding their foothold in the HRM area. To do so, they’ve nominated a candidate with quite a bit of profile, former Nova Scotia Teachers Union president Paul Wozney.

Glace Bay - Dominion

One of the most entertaining races of the 2021 general election was the “Battle of the Johns” between former CBRM mayor and NDP candidate John Morgan, Liberal John John McCarthy, and PC candidate John White. A true three-way battle, White edged out a 29 vote victory over Morgan. McCarthy was not far behind, only 275 votes away from first place.

White is re-offering for the Tories and hoping that the incumbent advantage will help him pad that margin.

Fairview-Clayton Park

Another seat the NDP are focusing on is Fairview-Clayton Park. Held by former-minister Patricia Arab, the riding has been Liberal since its creation in 2013. Arab defended a strong push by the NDP in the 2021 general election, hanging on to victory by just 105 votes. Look for the NDP to put some serious resources behind candidate Lina Hamid this time.

Are you ready to work with a new provincial government? How will this election impact your organization? Contact Langer Public Affairs to discuss how we can help you navigate the post-election landscape.